October 29, 2008

Positive Thinking About the Economy

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Why should we think positively about the economy? Will happy thoughts put more money in the bank, pay our homes sooner, restore our retirement portfolios?

Maybe.

I just read an excerpt from Robert Shiller's The Subprime Solution: How Today's Global Financial Crisis Happened, and What to Do about It . In describing how we got into this mess, he brought up a concept Alan Greenspan didn't put much credence in, but which turned out to be a critical factor in the real estate bubble and the resulting financial collapse.

Social Contagion

"Certain ideas infect a few people, then others, who continue to spread them. By the time most people are infected, the infection seems normal, and those who are not infected seem odd. Everyone who is infected thinks along the same lines. News channels feature the same kinds of stories and the people who offer opinions all seem to share the same assumptions. Thanks to social contagion, these ideas become "truth," not because they have withstood rigorous analysis, but because everyone accepts them as true."

Shiller faults economists (and bankers) for not recognizing the social epidemic of "everyone should be able to buy a home," "real estate will always go up," "let's get on this bandwagon now," etc. You know. You were around during the last 5-10 years. What did you see and hear? What were your friends saying around the water cooler?

Perhaps it was partly the euphoria of living through the change of the decade-century-millennium all at once. The ATM machines still worked, so what could go wrong? Time to celebrate, rejoice, dance, buy a house, buy another…

Why can't we turn that around? Some colleagues and I were talking about joy a few weeks ago. Do we experience joy in our work? We're all doing things we chose to do. Are we allowing ourselves to get so busy doing them that we forget the joy? Same with our outlook on clients, responsibilities, life in general, and of course the economy.

I have a long-held belief that what you focus on expands. When you're watching your money, it grows. When you aren't, it slips away. When you're watching what you lack, or the bad economy or your crumbling portfolio, you get more of that. More lack. More loss. More crumbling.

The real trick is to be so full of happiness, joy, lightness, energy, love - whatever - that it spills over to those around you. Make someone's day. Maybe they'll make someone else's day. Can we create a contagion of optimism while still being realistic about what we need to do?

I think so. My partner and I have cut back. We rarely go out to eat anymore, and that used to be an at-least-once-a-week activity (and my waist showed it!). We're enjoying being healthier, cooking at home, playing Scrabble afterwards. We've not bought new clothes. We drive less (except for 2000 miles last month visiting national parks and monuments — peaceful, regenerating…). Not only are we not suffering, we're enjoying our lives and each other even more.

Why? Because we chose to. We've always floated on the financial waves. When money's up, we ride higher. When it's down, we settle in. You can do it, too. Step outside with your family at sunset and each say something you're grateful for. Focus on what you have, not what you don't have.

Will you promise to infect at least one person with a smile, a laugh, joy, happiness — anything positive? I give you 24 hours. Wait. you've already been given this day. That's something to shout about right there! Pass it on!

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